OPEC+ Approves 188,000 BPD Output Rise After UAE Exit
OPEC+ has agreed an increase in oil output of 188,000 barrels per day, in its first meeting since the loss of its key member, the United Arab Emirates. The OPEC+ production increase following UAE exit comes as the alliance navigates one of the most turbulent periods in its history, with a regional war, a choked shipping corridor, and a fractured membership all bearing down at once.
Saudi Arabia and Russia take the largest June shares at 62,000 bpd each, targeting 10.291 million and 9.762 million bpd respectively. Iraq adds 26,000 bpd, Kuwait 16,000 bpd, Kazakhstan 10,000 bpd, Algeria 6,000 bpd, and Oman 5,000 bpd. The group also reaffirmed its commitment to compensate for overproduction since January 2024, with compliance to be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee ahead of its next session on June 7.
A Symbolic Move in a Disrupted Market
The OPEC+ production increase following UAE exit widely seen as more symbolic than practical. The rise in output is largely symbolic at this stage, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted by the Iran conflict. The US-Israel bombing campaign and the subsequent closure of the waterway, which commonly handles about one-fifth of global energy trade, have sharply reduced exports from key OPEC+ members.
The Iran war wiped out 7.88 million barrels per day of OPEC’s production in March alone, marking a 27% monthly decline to 20.79 million bpd a supply shock that surpassed even the Covid-19 pandemic’s peak output losses. US crude oil futures fell 3% to close at $101.94 per barrel, while Brent crude lost nearly 2% to settle at $108.17 both still nearly 78% higher since the start of 2026. The UAE’s exit, driven by frustration over quota constraints, leaves OPEC+ facing deeper structural questions about its long-term cohesion and influence over global oil markets.
