Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Climbs to 15.38% in March
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate has risen to 15.38% in March 2026. This ends eleven straight months of decline, according to new data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The jump signals growing cost pressures on Nigerian households. Rising fuel costs linked to the ongoing Iran war are a key driver of this reversal.
What the NBS Numbers Show
Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 15.38% in March 2026, up from 15.06% in February. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed to 135.40 points. This marks a 5.4-point rise from the previous month’s 130.0.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation jumped sharply to 4.18%. That compares to just 2.01% in February. The NBS noted that the twelve-month average inflation rate now stands at 20.05%. This is 1.48 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in March 2025.
Core inflation, which strips out volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 16.21% year-on-year in March 2026. Month-on-month, core inflation climbed to 4.03%. This was a sharp rise from just 0.89% in February.
Nigeria’s Inflation Rate March 2026: Food and Rural Prices
Food inflation, typically the main driver of the headline rate, came in at 14.31% year-on-year in March, up from 12.12% in February. Rural areas felt the most pressure. The rural inflation rate was 17.22% year-on-year. Urban areas recorded 14.64% over the same period.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation edged down slightly to 4.17% from 4.69% in February. The NBS attributed this modest drop to slower price changes in items like yam, fresh ginger, cassava tuber, groundnuts, and tomatoes.
Food inflation was highest in Bayelsa at 33.35%, followed by Sokoto at 28.02% and Adamawa at 21.67%. Kano recorded the slowest rise at 4.29%.
The Iran War Factor: Fuel Costs Drive Price Surge
The US-Iran war has emerged as a major force behind this inflation reversal. Fuel prices have risen more than 50% during the Iran war, feeding into transport, food, and production costs across Nigeria.
The U.S.-Iran war drove up petroleum prices, which raised transport costs in Nigeria. Those higher mobility costs pushed up the food index.
Analysts described the escalating Middle East tensions as delivering structural shocks to the Nigerian economy on both the demand and supply sides.
Nigeria’s finance minister also sounded the alarm this week. The minister warned of intensifying inflationary pressures as the Iran war triggered a sharp increase in domestic fuel costs.
Experts are divided on what comes next. Some analysts expected headline inflation to ease to 13.4% year-on-year, citing persistent signs of moderating price pressures. Others, however, believe the Middle East conflict could keep prices elevated for longer.
Inflation had declined for eleven straight months up to February, helped by tight monetary policy, exchange rate stability, and enhanced food supply.
Analysts note that easing disinflation could create space for monetary easing by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Nigeria’s inflation rate in March 2026 marks a turning point. It reminds Nigerians that the battle against high prices is far from over. Households and policymakers alike will be watching the CBN’s next move closely.
