Bitcoin Could Reach $250,000, but Not Before a Bottom Later This Year, Says Peter Brandt
One of the most respected names in commodities trading has a bullish long-term take on Bitcoin, but he’s urging the market to pump the brakes before popping the champagne. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has laid out a detailed Peter Brandt Bitcoin $250,000 prediction, and the path there runs straight through a painful bottoming phase that could drag well into the second half of 2026.
Brandt projects Bitcoin could reach $250,000 in late 2029, but only after a prolonged bottoming phase that may last until September or October 2026. His outlook is grounded in Bitcoin’s historical four-year halving cycle, where bull markets typically peak 16 to 18 months after a halving and bottom roughly a year after that peak.
The math checks out historically. The April 2024 halving cut Bitcoin’s block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. Following that pattern, Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 around October 2025, about 18 months later. A bear market lasting roughly a year would place the bottom somewhere in the fall of 2026, after which a new uptrend could build toward the $250,000 level ahead of the next halving in April 2028.
Brandt didn’t mince words about where things stand right now. “I am not calling for a low until Sep/Oct 2026. It is not necessary for the recent low to be penetrated. We could get a rally and then chop sideways to down. Worst case would be a move back into the lower green banana peel which would be into the 50s, maybe high 40s. Then blast off for $250k and a high in late 2029,” he told CoinDesk.
That view puts him at odds with much of the current crypto analyst community. The consensus among many crypto analysts is that the downtrend ending near the October peak of $126,000 already bottomed in early February around $60,000, with the 25% rally since then marking the start of a new uptrend. Brandt isn’t buying it, at least not yet.
Just last week, Brandt also pushed back publicly on predictions of Bitcoin hitting $250,000 this year, telling believers to “stop with the mushrooms” while pointing to a channel pattern on the daily chart that he described as distinctly not a bullish bottoming formation.
Still, the Peter Brandt Bitcoin $250,000 prediction remains intact, just on a longer timeline. And he’s been clear that he won’t stubbornly defend a broken thesis. “As long as the market follows the script I will stay with my projections. If at some point the price discovery moves off script I will be forced to revise all my thinking. I will NOT be dogmatic about it,” he said.
Other major forecasters have also been trimming their outlooks recently. Citigroup lowered its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $112,000, while Standard Chartered cut its year-end projection from $150,000 to $100,000. Arthur Hayes, who had previously reiterated a $250,000 target as recently as March 2026, has since walked back that figure significantly, now projecting around $125,000 by year-end.
Bitcoin has rallied over 25% since its February lows, trading near $80,300 as of early May 2026, a solid bounce, but still far below the October 2025 highs. If Brandt’s halving cycle framework holds, the real fireworks may still be a few years away.
