BTC slips under $77K amid oil shock and rising Treasury yields
Bitcoin slides below $77,000 again, and this time the culprits extend well beyond the crypto market. The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped to its lowest point since May 1 during Asian trading hours on Monday, dragged down by a combination of surging oil prices, multi-year highs in US Treasury yields, and a brutal wave of forced liquidations.
The drop came as rising oil prices and higher Treasury yields pressured risk assets broadly, while prediction market traders continued to price in little to no chance of near-term Federal Reserve relief.
The macro picture deteriorated sharply over the weekend. US President Donald Trump published a threat against Iran on Sunday, warning that any further delays in a peace agreement could result in military action. Amid the potential re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, Brent crude oil rose to $111.2 per barrel, while WTI crude climbed to $107.7. Traders immediately began pricing in the risk that high oil prices would sustain inflation and push the Fed toward a more aggressive stance.
The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.13%, its highest close since 2007, while the 10-year and two-year yields also extended last week’s rise, hitting 12-month highs. That kind of yield environment raises the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like Bitcoin, and investors rotated accordingly.
The sell-off wiped out over $500 million in leveraged long positions, with on-chain data from Binance Research citing Glassnode showing that nearly 60% of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year, and exchange balances sitting near six-year lows. While those figures suggest long-term holders are holding firm, they tell only half the story.
The short-term holder MVRV ratio has dropped below 1, meaning recent buyers are on average sitting on losses. That makes the market more sensitive to further drops, as those holders have less capacity to absorb another shock.
Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue Research Institute, identified the key culprits as surging Treasury yields hitting 12-month highs, a stronger dollar, and geopolitical escalation. He noted that despite the dip, the current pullback looks like healthy digestion within a broader uptrend, and pointed to $74,000 as the critical support level to watch on the downside.
Prediction markets now show a 98% probability of no Fed move in June and 94% in July. With rate cuts essentially off the table for the foreseeable future, Bitcoin slides below $77,000 into a zone where any fresh macro shock could carry outsized consequences.
Analyst Dominick John of Zeus Research added that traders should expect range-bound, headline-sensitive trading, with sharper directional moves only when one macro signal breaks the current consensus.
Attention now turns to Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, US PPI data on Thursday, and any developments around the CLARITY Act, the crypto market structure bill moving through Washington. Progress on that legislation could provide a sentiment boost at a moment when macro headwinds are doing the heavy lifting for bears.
